Coverage of the protests in North Africa and West Asia has become completely focused on Libya, and so the world waits to see what will happen in the next phase of the saga in Libya and beyond. Of course, the rest of the region hasn’t frozen in time while Muammar Gaddafi has been trying to cling onto power. Large protests have continued in Tunisia and Egypt where they continue to try and get reforms pushed through at a faster pace and continue to force the remnants of the previous regimes out. The leaders in Yemen and Bahrain continue to be put under heavy pressure, while large protests have also been held in Algeria, Morocco, Iran and Iraq. Arguably the least democratic and most extreme of them all in Saudi Arabia has made concessions in the form of directly giving every family money and potentially finally granting women the right to vote. However, rightly or wrongly, it feels like the fate of these popular uprising rests in Libya.
In Tunisia and Egypt, the institutions turned on their leaders when they realised that the number of angry ordinary people was too great, and ultimately, it was these institutions that ensured such remarkable results as the ending of Hosni Mubarek’s three decade reign. In Libya, Gaddafi had been vigorous in ensuring that there were no institutions. There were no formally organised opposition groups, even groups like the Muslim Brotherhood had not been allowed to operate, and the army had been kept deliberately small to avoid a military coup.
The situation in Libya is increasingly reaching a head. Gaddafi has shown no scruples in using his air force to bomb rebel held Eastern towns, though with limited effectiveness. There is a growing humanitarian crisis on the country’s borders as thousands of people try to evacuate. Gaddafi’s troops launched attacks on the towns of Brega and Adjabiya, but were beaten back with surprisingly low casualties sustained. Mass detentions of young people in the countries capital of Tripoli have been confirmed as Gaddafi continues to try and hold onto his power.
A full on civil war almost appears inevitable now although the nature of such a war is extremely hard to predict. In theory Gaddafi should have the weaponry and forces to crush the rebels, but it seems likely that morale is low in the dictator’s camp and it really isn’t clear just how many of his resources that Gaddafi really controls. If Gaddafi’s forces were as strong as suggested then it is strange to think that they have not yet been victorious. Meanwhile, remarkable news continues to come in from Eastern Libya, where hospitals, systems of administration, schools and all infrastructures are being instated. Organisation of a fighting force is also in full swing as they continue to train and arm themselves to protect the towns that they currently control, and potentially to launch their own offensive. Reports of protests and unrest in Tripoli also continue to grow, possibly aided by momentum won by the successes in the East.
It isn’t clear how it will play out in Libya. We can only hope that the bloodshed is limited and that the result is change for the Libyan people. What is clear is that just as in Tunisia and Egypt, the people of Libya are determined. They have not been put off by the prospect of a civil war with Gaddafi’s forces, they have no resigned themselves to consolidating their gains, and the relentlessness of this revolution is perhaps its most remarkable feature. The frustrations and anger of decades of oppressive rule in this region are coming out, and the men who have presided over those times are finding that despite all of their power, it is extremely difficult to fight the will of masses of empowered ordinary people. Gaddafi claims that he intends to go down in flames and die as a martyr, certainly his rhetoric is even stronger than Mubarek before him, but the message is the same, he believes that he can continue to control his country. However, just as Mubarek discovered, it is not his country. The country of Libya is made up of roughly 6 million people, and a huge number of those are fed up and angry with Gaddafi. Interviews with people who have been a part of these uprisings clearly show that these people do not see anything to go back to; they are completely unconditional in their demand for basic rights. As this situation drags on, the rebels will get stronger and more organised and dissent in Gaddafi’s camp will have a chance to grow. If revolution can succeed in Libya, it will be a victory not just for Libyans, but for freedom and democracy. It will be a victory that sends shudders around the world’s dictatorships, and it will be a testament to the power of ordinary people, even when they are stripped of rights that we in the West take for granted.
The international reaction has been somewhat mixed. Economic sanctions have been quickly imposed, a strategy that has been tried and tested and proven not to work if your intention is to support ordinary people. Military intervention is dangerously possible as US forces in particular assemble at various places around the region. The rebels themselves have vehemently demanded that international intervention does not happen, and that wish must be understood and respected. A no-fly zone is perhaps the least offensive of the international measures possible at this stage, assuming that its only role would be in protecting rebel cities from bombing. Of course the rhetoric attacking Gaddafi’s actions is somewhat difficult to stomach from an international community that essentially accepted him with open arms a decade ago. Their resolution to ‘properly investigate’ the ‘possibility’ that he has committed crimes against his people is equally pathetic, everyone and their mother knows that that man was a brutal dictator. Perhaps the most revealing reality of these demonstrations has been the way in which they have painted in black and white the West’s complicity in supporting and funding dictatorships that have oppressed their people.
Now those people are rising, they want control of their own futures, and their bravery and determination is admirable. It should of course be noted that the revolutions are on-going in other countries; they have not even stopped in Tunisia and Egypt. For now, all eyes are on Libya. If Gaddafi falls, especially in this manner, the aftershocks in the region and around the world could be truly great indeed.
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